evilwombat

Hmm another test! Where will this cross-post.

imported from blogger

Hello!!

It has been quite some time since I've posted anything. I just imported the non-cooking and non-gaming posts from blogger into this posterous. At some point I will write some new material.

My Yearly Portfolio Report (Year 2)

Intro:

It has felt like quite a long time since last year, but things have turned around a lot for the portfolio. One might say I have become that much wiser and that much better, but the market was also good to itself this year. Hence the jury is still out on whether I achieved any nominal advantage over the market. Here are the basic numbers.

Total Amount Invested:
$31,450.00

2005-2006: $20,400
2006-2007: $11,050

Current Value of Portfolio at Market Close (9/19/2007):
$37,855.02

Cash in Brokerage Account:
$237.25

Total Value:
$38,092.27

Percent Gain for the Year:
19.7%

Percent Gain Since Inception:
21.1%

Percent Gain (Annualized):
10.1%

Unlike last year, these results kicked ass!

I beat all of the following:
Inflation: ~4%
Savings Accounts: ~2%
High Yield Savings: ~4.5%
High Yield CD: ~5%+
US T-Bill Long: 5%+

Here is the list of moves I made this year.

Basic Transaction Log

Date	Action	Ticker	Shares	Price	Value
10/3/2006	Buy	COP	20	58.00	-1160.00
11/3/2006	Buy	BP	16	67.00	-1072.00
12/13/2006	Buy	GE	46	35.60	-1637.60
12/27/2006	Sell	DELL	42	25.60	+1177.60
1/3/2007	Buy	COP	32	68.00	-2176.00
2/20/2007	Buy	JNJ	20	65.30	-1306.00
2/28/2007	Buy	PG	21	62.60	-1314.60
4/10/2007	Buy	JNJ	18	61.65	-1109.70
5/15/2007	Buy	JNJ	22	62.10	-1366.20
6/18/2007	Buy	JNJ	25	62.33	-1558.25

In comparison to last year's log, I made much fewer moves. Only 9 Buy Orders and 1 Sell Order, for a grand total of $99.90 in fees paid. What I find particularly interesting is that the orders this calendar year didn't have much bearing on my performance the closer they were to today's date, in spite of the swings in the market. Only recently has JNJ started to move back up, and my February purchase looks pretty dumb in hindsight.

Off of my trusty spreadsheet, I added some new tabs to help me keep things in perspective. The first tab is now my holdings page, which has all 15 of my holdings on it. What is interesting to note is that variation in investment dividend yield growth. At the low end we have MMM and WM. At the high end we have ITW and VOLV leading the way. I expect that MMM will increase its dividend quite a bit over the next few years. However, I think VOLV has had a pretty good run and is unlikely to produce any gains in the coming year.

closing

To close, here are some numbers off the spreadsheet.

Total Aggregate of Buy Orders:
$34810.83
Total Aggregate of Sell Orders:
$2479.47
Total Fees Paid:
$214.79
Total Dividends Received:
$1146.98
Total Dividend Return (someday I hope this is a huge number):
3.647%
Turnover Rate (I like to call this my panic level):
7.88%

spreadsheet link (zipped)

disclosure: I currently own shares of the following stocks mentioned in this post; MMM, BAC, BP, KO, COP, GE, HRB, ITW, INTC, JNJ, MSFT, PEP, PG, VOLV, WM. I no longer own shares of DELL.

progress on this year's resolutions

Well, it has been way too long since I have last posted, but now I feel I should get back to keeping up my records. Here is how I have fared on this year's resolutions.

1. Saving $35,000 out of my income.

Well, I won't lie. This goal I'm definitely going to miss this year. As it stands, here is what I have saved.

Non-Retirement Accounts: $6,250.00
Retirement Accounts: $12040.33

Total: $18290.33
Projected: $29208
Shortfall: $5792

I had a decent shot at making it but I had some rough spots this year. I'll save the diatribe here and just say I need to have better discipline going forward.

2. Getting in Shape (lose 15% of weight)

Start of the year: 280 lbs
Current: 243 lbs (-15.23%)

Already met this goal, but I'm aiming to get down to 220lbs by this year's end. I really hate writing down my actual weight here but it has to be done. I forget where I heard the quote "You cannot improve what you don't measure." but it has proved to be so true for everything I've done this year.

3. Record every single penny earned and spent this year.

So far this has worked out, although I'm less than pleased about where my money has gone! I'm still debating whether I will post my personal spreadsheet up here. Stay tuned on that note.

4. Visit my out-of-state friends this year.

KI & DC (CA): Yes
CO & HS & DC (NJ): Yes
JCP (CA): No (crossed at the wrong time)

5 out of 6 isn't bad at all. I think I will catch JCP early next year. But on the other hand, I visited the NJ folks several times this year and will be going back again.

Conclusion:

So far it is a mixed bag but I haven't done so badly that I abandoned my goals. We'll see how I fare by year's end, perhaps I will reiterate my goals for next year.

Early March Pick - Proctor & Gamble (PG)

low hanging fruit

If you happened to read the news today, the stock market fell about 3.5% across the board today. While my own portfolio [lost] about 3.15% today, I didn't participate in any selling and decided to make a deposit at the end of the day to see what I might be able to dig up later this week.

However, as fate would have it, the money has already been deposited into my brokerage, the very same day. Looking over the list of what I own, this is what I saw.

HRB	-1.74%
GE	-1.92%
JNJ	-1.94%
MMM	-2.13%
WM	-2.26%
ITW	-2.30%
PEP	-2.68%
KO	-2.79%
BP	-3.16%
BAC	-3.77%
INTC	-3.93%
MSFT	-4.13%
COP	-4.28%
VOLV	-5.96%

Given that every single stock in my portfolio of 14 stocks fell today, one could make a case for reinvestment into almost any one of the stocks. However, I pondered, was there another stock out there that I don't already own that fell even further today?

Looking over the list of stocks that I lust to own for cheap, I stumbled upon PG, which normally I would not buy because the price is simply stratospheric. My argument has typically been, why buy PG when I can buy GE for less? However, today is a special day, because today, PG fell almost 5% in one day.

the ecstasy and the agony

For several hours tonight, I agonized over whether I would really want to buy in, as it isn't exactly that cheap- just relatively cheap to itself. Plus, there is the possibility it may slide tomorrow. For what might be the first time, I looked at the bid/ask spread on the brokerage hint tab and pondered my decision some more. Ultimately, I decided that I will buy, for these reasons.

1. If the price normalizes because people wake to their senses and decided to re-fortify their stake in PG, it doesn't have to travel very far in price to make a tidy little return. Hence, this feels a little bit like picking low-hanging fruit, to me.
2. While the price does it's thing, PG will pay out about 2% in dividends, a quick return that also guards against loss without sacrificing equity (assuming PG does not issue more stock).
3. There are worse stocks where I could put my money, and putting a little bit of money away in a different security that got hit harder than the rest reduces the correlation of my holdings by just a bit. However, per-security correlation is among the least of my concerns, right up there with what I will have for breakfast tomorrow and what I will wear in the morning for work.

Ultimately it is possible I will look like a fool for buying in, but I do recall a similar time when PG had similar surface numbers as it does now. Back then I also shied away from buying it because it looked expensive, and unfortunately it zoomed ahead quite a bit since then. My order is a market order, which looks like it will cost me just a shade over $1300 once fees are factored in. We shall see.

disclaimer: I own the stocks in the aforementioned tickers: HRB, GE, JNJ, MMM, WM, ITW, PEP, KO, BP, BAC, INTC, MSFT, COP, VOLV

personal finance, week 8

begin lush

This past week was not a good week. While it wasn't one of the worst weeks on record to date this year, I feel it was pretty bad. Without further ado, here are the numbers.

the tally

Total Spent (Week): $183.00
Total Spent (Month): $396.00
Total Spent (Year): $1216.00

Avg/Day (Week): $26.14
Avg/Day (Year): $21.71

Yearly Projection (Week): $9548.69
Yearly Projection (Year): $7931.14

end lush

Well, ultimately, I don't forsee having as heavy a week adrift in a glass as this past week. The next upcoming week should be better, but we'll see. I don't forsee having an empty week but it should be much more quiet in relation to prior weeks.

February Pick - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

a stock without glamour

Quite a few people have asked me why I hold J&J in such high esteem. I'll admit, it hasn't had the sort of blockbuster success in making famous drugs that it's peers have had. Also, it seems to have acquired a reputation for being a cheapskate when it comes to buying other operations, although Pfizer's consumer products division is not exactly a cheaply priced merger. However, the one thing that J&J has is the same thing that Coke has in terms of their relationship with their customers.

who will take care of you?

Even at an early age, I recall that my mom always stuck by johnson & johnson products. Well over twenty years have passed and she still uses Johnson & Johnson baby lotion, baby powder, and band-aids. My family went through some tough times, and there have been times where price really would have dictated that she ought to look at some generic brand, but that was the one place where she didn't skimp. On the other hand, she never used foundation or a lot of makeup, but used the baby lotion as she felt she needed it.

Even myself, I've found that I can't look away from J&J's products as they are on the shelf. Given a situation where I needed to bandage a really bad scrape on my leg, I ended up buying J&J Gauze and J&J cloth tape. One thing I've noticed is that J&J is the only brand that can use the trademarked red cross, aside from the Red Cross Organization. That trademark might well be one of the most ubiquitous signals in the world, if not only the most recognizable. Even if you end up buying some other product, that symbol will be on your mind, and you will remember that you last chose something else when you see it again. I think that maybe Coke and Pepsi are the only two brands that make people feel the same way when they choose the alternative.

more than just consumer products

Another case I have for J&J is their current strategy to move forward. It's a recognizable strategy, as both Proctor and Gamble, and General Electric are executing a similar strategy. It isn't six-sigma that I am talking about here, but a basic strategy that is commonly known. Their collective strategy is basically to use the money earned from a stable base of operations to pursue as many high-reward goals as they can afford. In J&J's instance, they use their consumer products earnings to fund research for drugs. Given that it is almost obvious that they are doing this, one has to wonder why their competitors didn't work harder to derail their efforts to buy Pfizer's consumer operations. Buying their consumer products division makes a lot of sense for J&J, as it gives them a much bigger base from which to pursue high-reward goals.

what else could I have bought?

Well, I could have also bought more MMM, COP, or bank stocks. However, J&J will be making it's last quarterly dividend payment of their fiscal year. Given the stability of their stock, other people usually push the stock up when they announce that they are increasing their dividend payout. However, it isn't strictly necessary for them to increase their dividends. On one hand, I admit, I am disappointed that MMM's recent announcement was a paltry 4% or so in comparison to their usual 7% or more increase. If not for the bad news, so to speak, I might have gone and bought MMM instead. However, I think other investors might look down on MMM and punish the stock a bit. If I am right, I will be sure to get in later on down the road, and perhaps at a better price.

the purchase

My limit buy order was for 20 shares at $65.30 (about $1300). This order cleared sometime during the day on the 20th of this month. While in the near term, this order might actually lose money (the stock has been sliding a bit lately), I'm not overly concerned.

looking onward

If I had to guess what the next few buys are going to be, I am looking at the following items.

KO

Coca-Cola has already announced their dividend will increase, and in response their stock moved down in price. What more is there to be said about this? Next month will be somewhat close to their ex-dividend deadline, so we'll see how soon I can get in if the price continues to slide.

E

Eni-SP is a really, really, cheap oil stock. They're mostly based in italy, with operations widespread in europe. On paper they're even cheaper than COP, but buying the stock does have some disadvantages in comparison, notably the non-deferred tax on dividends (foreign), lower profitability in their operations, and fears that they will get regulated by governments into unprofitability. However, at the current price they are well within a cheap range where even modest increases in business will generate huge returns. Their high dividend payout ratio doesn't hurt their case either.

disclaimer: I own shares in the stocks of these aforementioned companies: JNJ, KO, PEP, MMM, COP, GE.

personal finance, week 7

askew

This week's cash purchases are a bit skewed because I had to repay a small debt to a friend, and he opted to take it in cash rather than w/a check. In other news, I expect that in coming weeks I may be spending a little bit more going out than is reflected in the year to date. We'll see.

the tally

Total Spent (Week): $131
Total Spent (Month): $213
Total Spent (Year): $1033

Avg/Day (Week): $18.71
Avg/Day (Year): $21.08

Yearly Projection (Week): $6835.39
Yearly Projection (Year): $7700.07

end note

Well, there is not a whole lot to say here. If you subtract out the $90 I paid to my friend, there wasn't a whole lot going on this week. On one good note, the overall trend is heading downward for the yearly projection. However, we'll see about the overall picture when the end of month comes up.

wing eating notes

Notes for myself

1. Drinking more liquids should be ok
2. Eat a little bit more slowly at the start
3. Maybe next time i'll try w/sauce.

Notes for you, in case you are ever crazy enough to try this

1. Assuming you are not the purging type, you should note that the biggest stumbling block is the overall taste of the wings. The elite competitive eaters usually purge afterward, and their results tend to be based on speed of intake rather than retention.

Here is a little chart of what they tasted like to me, according to the various milestones along the way.

10 Wings - They are Yummy
20 Wings - They taste fine
30 Wings - They're ok
35 Wings - They're awful
40 Wings - They're vile
50 Wings - Absolutely Disgusting

58 Wings - Bleech

2. If you've never stuffed yourself to your uttermost limits, you should know that you might start to hallucinate towards the end of the contest. My own experience is probably influenced by having a hyperactive imagination, but if you let your mind drift to try and imagine you are eating something else, don't be surprised if the rest of your senses follow.

personal finance, week 6

a tame week

This week was almost the same as last week, except for a few miscellaneous items later in the week. Aside from the usual coffee and parking for each workday of the week, I had a handful of other purchases.

the tally

Total Spent (Week): $74
Total Spent (Month): $94
Total Spent (Year): $902

Avg/Day (Week): $10.57
Avg/Day (Year): $21.48

Yearly Projection (Week): $3861.21
Yearly Projection (Year): $7844.18

58 wings!!

The biggest cash expenditure this week was a wing eating contest that I somehow got myself into this week after work. I beat the office record for wings consumed (technically wing segments). Unfortunately, I wasn't feeling so great afterward, but oh well. There was that a friend of mine said he had put money on me to win, which is what prompted me to go in (I actually wanted to decline participating). Unfortunately, he didn't actually place real money and my efforts were somewhat in vain. Overall, the wing contest cost me $20, which was made up of two cokes, 6 racks of wings (10c each wing, 10 per rack), and 1 shot of vodka.

If I did this every week for a whole year, it would cost me $1043.57 a year on average.